The Indians are batting .245 as a team which ranks dead last in the AL. The poor hitting has become a subject of many articles this season. Terry Pluto is already looking to next year, giving up on the Tribe completely (link). I usually agree with Terry when it comes to baseball, but I’m not giving up on the red and blue even if Cleveland’s best beat writer has already done so. Let me clarify before I continue. I am not predicting the Indians win the World Series, win the division, or even make the playoffs. I am simply presenting an argument for why they are not “done.” I've come up with four reasons to stay hopeful.
1. I’ll start with the offense. A .245 batting average is mind numbingly bad, no doubt. Here’s a stat you might not have seen, though. Cleveland has a .271 BA, 23 HR, and 262 RBI’s with runners in scoring position, good enough for 6th, 1st, and 3rd in the AL respectively. With the bases loaded, Cleveland sports a .338 BA. I’m not trying to take away from the poor overall numbers, but statistically speaking, the Indians are hitting much better with runners in scoring position. If the bats start to come alive with the bases empty, this team could take off.
2. Baseball Prospectus lists Cleveland as a 4.78 percent chance to make the playoffs (as of 06/22, link). Since when did 4.78 become zero? In a professional simulation, Cleveland makes the playoffs roughly 5 times out of 100. Let’s draw a comparison. The Chicago Bulls won the first pick of the 2008 NBA draft with 1.7 percent odds (link). The Cleveland Indians have 2.81 times more of a chance to make the playoffs than the Bulls did to win the first pick.
3. In 2005, Cleveland was 15 games back of the Chicago White Sox in July and made an impressive run posting a 39-18 record after the all star break, falling just short of the playoffs (link). Right now the Indians are 6.5 games out of first. The AL Central leading Chicago White Sox just got finished being swept by the Chicago Cubs. I’m not ready to hand them the division, that’s for sure. Just remember, bigger defecits have been erased before. Try asking the 2007 New York Mets.
4. In case you forgot, the Indians have a solid starting rotation despite injuries to Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona. Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, and Aaron Laffey continue to provide quality outings. If Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and Jenson Lewis can pull it together like they are capable of, Cleveland might have a shot.
Sure, the odds are against Cleveland, but in all honesty isn’t that usually the case? Part of being a Cleveland fan is beating the odds. The Indians use a 78 million dollar payroll. 78 million pales in comparison to the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, and White Sox (all over $120 million). The Yankees, Mets, and Tigers haven’t won a World Series in years. And while the Red Sox and White Sox have both recently cashed in (2007 and 2005 respectively), I’m not ready to throw in the towel.
6.5 games out.
Here’s hoping tomorrow it’s 5.5.
